Forecasting of gross agricultural output of agrarian enterprises of Ukraine: case study with STELLA software.

Abstract

The article is devoted to the forecasting of gross agricultural output of agrarian enterprises of Ukraine with an application of STELLA program. The STELLA economic modelling program, which combines mathematical differential equations with a developed graphical interface, has been used in the article. In this program a model was created and an attempt was made to forecast the gross agricultural output of agrarian enterprises of Ukraine by 2030. It has been the possible growth up to UAH 147319 mln UA of output of agricultural enterprises (PRODUCTION) with a slight reduction and further stabilization of the agricultural land (AREA) at the level of 22600 thousand hectares, a constant increase in fertilizers to 135 kg per hectare (FERTILIZATION) and a steady growth of enterprises up to 60900 (ENTERP). The most promising possibilities for applying STELLA program in economic forecasting have been outlined in the article.